United Airlines has a fleet coverage of approximately 52.2% for Starlink-equipped aircraft, indicating that about half of their planes have Starlink capability. However, there are no direct observations of Starlink on the SFO-DCA route, so empirical observation data cannot increase the probability. Recent high-confidence news confirms that United has begun rolling out Starlink installations on mainline aircraft, including Boeing 737-800s, and has conducted inaugural flights with Starlink on other routes such as EWR-LAS. Community sightings confirm regional fleet rollout completion but do not specifically mention SFO-DCA. Given the fleet coverage and rollout status, and absence of direct route observations, the probability is anchored at the fleet coverage level (0.522) with a slight allowance for rollout progress, resulting in a conservative estimate of 0.52. The confidence is medium due to lack of direct route observations but strong fleet and news evidence.

Last calculated May 20, 2026