United Airlines has installed Starlink on 46.5% of its fleet, with rollout status 'installed'. However, no Starlink observations have been recorded on the IAH->SEA route, resulting in a 0% observed rate. According to scoring rules, since rollout_status is 'installed' but fleet coverage is below 50%, the probability should be anchored to the empirical observation rate with a small allowance above it. Given the lack of direct observations on this route but strong fleet-wide installation and recent news confirming rollout progress, a probability near the fleet coverage but not exceeding it by more than 0.10 is appropriate. Thus, the probability is set at 0.465 (fleet coverage 0.465), reflecting a conservative estimate with medium confidence.

Last calculated May 25, 2026