United Airlines has installed Starlink on 46.5% of its fleet, with rollout status 'installed'. However, no Starlink observations have been recorded on the SUN->ORD route, resulting in a 0% observed rate. According to the critical scoring rule, since rollout_status is 'installed' but fleet coverage is below 50%, the probability should be anchored to the empirical observation rate and not exceed it by more than 0.10 without specific route sightings or news. There are no direct sightings or news confirming Starlink on this specific route, only general fleet-wide rollout news and confirmed regional fleet completion. Therefore, the probability is set slightly below the fleet coverage ratio at 0.465, reflecting fleet data but respecting the lack of route-specific observations.

Last calculated May 25, 2026