United Airlines has installed Starlink on 46.5% of its fleet, with rollout status 'installed'. However, no Starlink observations exist on the SFO->ADL route, so the empirical observation ratio is 0%. Given the fleet coverage is below 50%, the minimum probability is not forced to fleet ratio. Recent news confirms Starlink is operational on United mainline and regional fleets, and sightings confirm rollout completion on regional US routes. Since SFO->ADL is an international long-haul route likely served by mainline aircraft, and no direct observations exist, we conservatively anchor probability near fleet coverage but do not exceed it by more than 0.10. Thus, probability is set at 0.465 (fleet coverage), confidence tier 'likely' due to indirect evidence and no direct observations.

Last calculated May 25, 2026