Given the very low fleet coverage of 4.1% and zero observed Starlink flights on the ARN->VBY route, the probability is anchored to the fleet coverage ratio. There is no recent news, community sightings, or Perplexity-verified context to suggest higher likelihood. Therefore, the probability is conservatively set slightly above zero but not exceeding the fleet coverage ratio by more than 0.10, resulting in a score of 0.041. The confidence is medium due to the lack of direct observations but known fleet rollout status.

Last calculated May 20, 2026