United Airlines has a very high fleet coverage ratio of 95.6% with Starlink fully deployed across its fleet. Although there are zero direct observations on the SMF->SFO route, the critical scoring rule for fully deployed airlines with fleet coverage above 50% mandates a minimum probability equal to the fleet ratio. Recent news confirms active Starlink usage on United mainline flights including inaugural flights on major routes, and community sightings confirm completion of rollout on 300+ regional aircraft. Given the high fleet coverage and strong rollout status, the probability is anchored at fleet coverage despite lack of direct observations on this route.

Last calculated May 22, 2026