United Airlines has installed Starlink on 46.5% of its fleet, with rollout status 'installed'. However, no Starlink observations exist on the SFO->OTH route, so the empirical observation ratio is 0%. Given the airline's rollout status and fleet coverage below 50%, the fleet ratio acts as a floor. Recent news confirms Starlink is operational on mainline and regional United flights, and sightings confirm rollout completion on regional US routes. Therefore, the probability is anchored near the fleet coverage (0.465) but slightly reduced due to zero observations on this route, resulting in a conservative estimate of 0.465 (fleet ratio) as the minimum, adjusted slightly downward to reflect lack of direct observations but supported by rollout status and sightings.

Last calculated May 25, 2026