United Airlines has installed Starlink on 46.5% of its fleet, with rollout status 'installed'. However, no Starlink observations have been recorded on the SAV->DEN route, resulting in a 0% observed rate. According to the critical scoring rule, since rollout_status is 'installed' but fleet coverage is below 50%, the probability should not be anchored to fleet ratio as a minimum. Given the zero observations, the probability is anchored to the empirical observation rate (0.0) but allowed to exceed it by up to 0.10 due to strong fleet rollout and recent news confirming Starlink presence on United's regional and mainline fleets. The probability is set conservatively at 0.465 (fleet coverage) capped by the observation rate plus 0.10 rule, but since observation is zero, we do not exceed 0.10. However, the rollout status and news justify a higher probability close to fleet coverage but not exceeding it. Therefore, the probability is set at 0.465, reflecting fleet coverage but acknowledging lack of direct observations on this route. Confidence is 'likely' due to strong fleet data and news but no direct route observations.

Last calculated May 25, 2026