United Airlines has a very high fleet coverage of 95.6% with Starlink fully deployed, which sets a strong baseline probability. Although there are zero direct observations on the ORD->DSM route, the critical scoring rule mandates that the probability cannot be below the fleet coverage ratio for fully deployed airlines with coverage above 50%. Recent high-confidence news confirms Starlink installation on mainline and regional fleets, including inaugural flights with Starlink on mainline aircraft. Community sightings confirm completion of rollout on regional fleets. Given the lack of route-specific observations but strong fleet-wide evidence and rollout status, the probability is anchored at the fleet coverage ratio with high confidence.

Last calculated May 22, 2026