United Airlines has a very high fleet coverage of 95.6% with Starlink fully deployed, which sets a strong baseline probability. Although there are zero direct observations on the MBS->ORD route, the critical scoring rule mandates that the probability cannot be below the fleet coverage for fully deployed airlines with coverage above 50%. Recent news confirms active Starlink installation on mainline aircraft and inaugural flights with Starlink WiFi, supporting the high probability. Community sightings confirm completion of rollout on regional fleets, further reinforcing the estimate. The lack of direct observations is likely due to incomplete flight tracking data rather than absence of Starlink.

Last calculated May 22, 2026