Southwest Airlines is currently in a rolling_out status with a high fleet coverage ratio of 86.2%, which typically would anchor the probability near the fleet ratio. However, perplexity-verified context indicates zero aircraft currently equipped as of May 2026, and there are no route-specific observations or recent news confirming Starlink presence on LAS->RIC. Given the rollout is announced to begin in summer 2026 and no confirmed sightings exist, the probability is anchored conservatively at 0.30, treating the fleet ratio as a floor but not exceeding the empirical evidence by more than 0.10 without direct confirmation.