United Airlines has a very high fleet coverage of 95.6% with Starlink fully deployed, which sets a strong baseline probability. Although there are zero direct observations on the IAD->MSP route, the airline's rollout status is fully deployed, and recent high-confidence news confirms active Starlink use on mainline flights including inaugural and media flights. Community sightings confirm completion of regional fleet rollout. Given the critical scoring rule for fully deployed airlines with fleet coverage above 50%, the probability cannot be scored below the fleet ratio despite zero observations. The lack of route-specific observations is likely due to incomplete flight tracking data rather than absence of Starlink. Therefore, the probability is anchored at the fleet coverage ratio of 0.956 with high confidence.

Last calculated May 22, 2026