United Airlines has a fully deployed Starlink rollout with 95.6% fleet coverage, which sets a strong baseline probability. Although there are zero direct observations of Starlink on the FOD->ORD route, the critical scoring rule for fully deployed airlines with fleet coverage above 50% mandates a minimum probability equal to the fleet ratio. Recent high-confidence news confirms Starlink installation on mainline United aircraft, including inaugural flights and media tests, and community sightings confirm completion of regional fleet rollout. The lack of route-specific observations is likely due to incomplete flight tracking data rather than absence of Starlink. Therefore, the probability is anchored at the fleet coverage ratio of 0.956 with high confidence.

Last calculated May 22, 2026