United Airlines has a very high fleet coverage of 95.6% with Starlink fully deployed, which sets a strong baseline probability. Although there are zero direct observations on the DEN->OGG route, the critical scoring rule mandates that the probability cannot be below the fleet coverage for fully deployed airlines with coverage above 50%. Recent high-confidence news confirms active Starlink deployment on United's mainline fleet, including inaugural flights and media tests, and community sightings confirm completion of regional fleet rollout. Given the lack of direct route observations but strong fleet-wide evidence, the probability is anchored at fleet coverage with high confidence.

Last calculated May 22, 2026