United Airlines has a very high fleet coverage of 95.6% with Starlink fully deployed, which sets a strong baseline probability. Although there are zero direct observations of Starlink on the CMH->SFO route, the critical scoring rule mandates that the probability cannot be scored below the fleet coverage ratio for fully deployed airlines with high coverage. Recent news confirms active mainline Starlink installations and inaugural flights, supporting the high probability. Community sightings confirm completion of rollout on regional fleets, further reinforcing the estimate. The lack of route-specific observations is likely due to incomplete flight tracking data rather than absence of Starlink.

Last calculated May 22, 2026