United Airlines has an installed Starlink rollout status with a fleet coverage of 36.7%, which sets a floor for the probability on this route despite zero direct observations. No flights with confirmed Starlink tails have been observed on SMF->IAD, but this is likely due to incomplete flight tracking data rather than absence of Starlink. Recent high-confidence news confirms Starlink installation on mainline and regional fleets, including inaugural flights with Starlink on United. Community sightings confirm rollout completion on regional US routes. Given the fleet coverage below 50% and zero observations, the probability is anchored at the fleet coverage floor of 0.367, rounded to 0.37, reflecting a conservative estimate with medium confidence.

Last calculated May 24, 2026