Southwest Airlines is currently in a rolling_out status with a high fleet coverage ratio of 86.2%, but no aircraft are yet equipped and no confirmed Starlink observations exist on the LGB->RNO route. Given the announced rollout starting summer 2026 and zero current equipped aircraft, the probability is anchored conservatively near zero but not zero due to the imminent rollout and high fleet coverage potential. The probability is set at 0.30 as a floor reflecting the rollout status and fleet coverage, consistent with the critical scoring rule for rolling_out airlines with fleet_ratio >= 0.30.