Southwest Airlines is currently in a rolling_out status with a high fleet coverage ratio of 86.2%, but no aircraft are yet equipped and no confirmed Starlink observations exist on the VPS->HOU route. Given the announced rollout starting summer 2026 and zero current equipped aircraft, the probability is anchored conservatively near the lower bound of rollout expectations, set at 0.30 as a floor reflecting the rollout status and fleet coverage. No recent news or sightings support a higher probability, so the score remains moderate with medium confidence.