Despite zero direct observations of Starlink on the TRF->LPA route, airBaltic has an extremely high fleet coverage of 98.6%, with multiple sources confirming 48-70 aircraft equipped, mostly A220-300s. The lack of route-specific sightings and recent news for this route limits certainty, but given the near-full fleet deployment and community confirmation of Starlink on airBaltic A220s, it is reasonable to estimate a probability anchored near the empirical observation rate (0.0) plus a conservative uplift reflecting fleet coverage and community evidence, resulting in a 0.40 probability. This respects the instruction to not exceed observation rate by more than 0.10 unless strongly supported, but here the strong fleet coverage and community sightings justify a moderate uplift.

Last calculated May 18, 2026