Southwest Airlines is currently in a rolling_out status with a high fleet coverage ratio of 86.2%, which normally would anchor the probability near that level. However, there are zero observed flights with confirmed Starlink on the TPA->MEM route, and no recent news or community sightings to support a higher probability. Perplexity context indicates no aircraft currently equipped as of mid-2026, with rollout expected to begin in summer 2026. Given these factors, the probability is conservatively anchored at 0.30, reflecting the announced rollout status and high fleet coverage but lack of direct route evidence.