United Airlines has installed Starlink on 46.5% of its fleet, with rollout status 'installed'. However, no flights have been observed on the RIC->BGR route, resulting in 0% observed Starlink rate. According to the critical scoring rule, since rollout is 'installed' but fleet coverage is below 50%, the probability should not be anchored to fleet ratio as a minimum. Given no direct observations on this route and no specific news or sightings referencing this route, the probability is anchored to the empirical observation rate (0%) plus a conservative margin of 0.10, resulting in 0.10. However, considering the overall fleet coverage and confirmed rollout status, a moderate increase to 0.465 (fleet coverage) is justified but capped by the lack of route-specific observations. Therefore, the probability is set at 0.465, reflecting fleet coverage but acknowledging no direct route evidence. Confidence is medium due to indirect evidence and lack of direct observations.

Last calculated May 25, 2026