United Airlines has an installed rollout status with a fleet coverage of 51.9%, which mandates a minimum probability floor of 0.519 despite zero direct route observations for ORF->IAD. The absence of observed Starlink tails on this route is due to incomplete flight tracking data rather than lack of equipment. Recent high-confidence news confirms active Starlink deployment on United's mainline and regional fleets, including first mainline flights with Starlink in late 2025 and early 2026. Community sightings confirm completion of regional fleet rollout by early 2026. Given the fleet coverage and rollout status, the probability is anchored at the fleet ratio with moderate confidence.

Last calculated May 23, 2026