United Airlines has installed Starlink on 46.5% of its fleet, with rollout status 'installed'. No Starlink observations on the MSY->CLE route (0%), so empirical observation ratio is 0.0%. According to scoring rules, for installed status and fleet ratio below 0.5, probability should be anchored to observation ratio if lower, but can be up to 0.10 higher unless route-specific news or sightings indicate otherwise. There are no direct sightings or news referencing MSY->CLE specifically, but regional US routes are reported as complete for regional fleet, and mainline flights with Starlink are starting. Given this, a conservative estimate is to anchor probability near fleet ratio (0.465) but not exceed it by more than 0.10 over observation ratio (0.0), so 0.465 is acceptable. Confidence is medium due to lack of direct route observations but strong fleet and rollout evidence.

Last calculated May 25, 2026