Alaska Airlines has a rollout status of 'installed' with a fleet coverage ratio of 72.2%, which mandates a minimum probability floor of 0.722 for all routes regardless of zero observed Starlink flights on MRY->MFR. The lack of route-specific observations and recent news means no upward adjustment is justified, but the fleet coverage strongly supports a high baseline probability. The medium confidence in perplexity data and absence of sightings or news keep the confidence tier at 'likely' rather than higher.