Southwest Airlines is currently in a rolling_out status with a high fleet coverage ratio of 86.2%, which normally would anchor the probability near this level. However, perplexity-verified context indicates that as of May 2026, Southwest has not yet equipped any aircraft with Starlink, and there are zero confirmed observations or sightings on the MCI->SAN route. Given the announced rollout starting summer 2026 and no recent news or sightings, the probability is anchored conservatively at 0.30, reflecting the rollout status and fleet coverage as a floor but not exceeding the empirical observation rate by more than 0.10 without stronger evidence.