United Airlines has installed Starlink on 46.5% of its fleet, with rollout status 'installed'. However, no Starlink observations exist on the MAF->PNS route, so the empirical observation ratio is 0%. Given the fleet coverage is below 50%, the minimum probability is not forced to fleet ratio but anchored to observation ratio. We anchor probability to observation ratio (0.0) plus a conservative 0.10 margin, but since rollout is installed and news confirms mainline and regional fleet installations, we increase probability closer to fleet ratio but do not exceed it. Recent news and sightings confirm rollout progress, especially on regional routes, supporting a probability near fleet coverage but respecting lack of direct observations on this route.

Last calculated May 25, 2026