United Airlines has a very high fleet coverage ratio of 95.6% with Starlink fully deployed, which sets a strong baseline probability. Although there are zero direct observations on the IAD->ITH route, the critical scoring rule mandates using the fleet coverage ratio as a minimum probability for fully deployed airlines with coverage above 50%. Recent news confirms active Starlink deployment on mainline and regional fleets, including inaugural flights with Starlink on United aircraft. Community sightings also confirm completion of regional fleet rollout. Given the lack of route-specific observations but strong fleet-wide evidence, the probability is anchored at the fleet coverage ratio with high confidence.

Last calculated May 22, 2026