United Airlines has a fully deployed Starlink rollout with 95.6% fleet coverage, which sets a strong baseline probability for all routes including BZN->IAD. Although there are zero direct observations on this route, the critical scoring rule mandates that for fully deployed airlines with fleet coverage above 50%, the probability cannot be scored below the fleet ratio. Recent high-confidence news confirms Starlink is operational on mainline United flights, including inaugural flights on other routes, and community sightings confirm completion of regional fleet installation. Given the lack of direct observations but strong fleet-wide deployment and multiple supporting evidence sources, the probability is anchored at the fleet coverage ratio of 0.956 with high confidence.

Last calculated May 22, 2026